Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock stated on June 4, 2026, that Australia is projected to avoid a recession despite global economic headwinds stemming from the Middle East war and potential oil price increases. While acknowledging that growth may moderate, Bullock anticipates continued expansion, supported by investment and structural tailwinds in sectors like software and renewable energy. She rejected concerns of stagflation, defining it as a prolonged period of high inflation and poor growth/employment, a situation she believes Australia is not currently experiencing. Treasury secretary Jenny Wilkinson noted that while current oil supply disruptions have been mitigated by inventory drawdowns, prolonged conflict poses risks of increased prices and potential usage restrictions for Australia's trading partners. New trade figures for April revealed a significant 134% year-on-year increase in crude oil imports, reaching a record $8.2 billion.