ANALYSIS: Is the Philippines at risk of stagflation? 02.06.2026

The Philippines is experiencing a complex economic situation characterized by slowing GDP growth and rising inflation, leading economists to identify early warning signs of stagflation. The first quarter of 2026 saw GDP grow by only 2.8%, the slowest since the COVID-19 pandemic, while inflation reached 7.2% in April, the fastest in over a year. These conditions are attributed to a combination of global price shocks from the Middle East conflict and domestic issues like the flood control corruption scandal. While economists largely agree the country is not yet in stagflation, the elevated "Misery Rate" of 9.09% highlights economic hardship. Risks of stagflation could increase if price pressures persist and economic confidence wanes, despite existing economic buffers.


















