ENTRETIEN. Baisse de la natalité : vers un "cataclysme" dans 10 ans en France ? L’économiste Maxime Sbaihi craint "un retournement historique"

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ENTRETIEN. Baisse de la natalité : vers un "cataclysme" dans 10 ans en France ? L’économiste Maxime Sbaihi craint "un retournement historique" 18.02.2026

La Depeche

Economist Maxime Sbaihi warns of a demographic "cataclysm" in France within a decade due to declining birth rates, predicting a significant labor shortage and a strain on the social model. Since 2010, France has closed 6,000 elementary schools and lost half a million students, a trend that will impact the workforce by 2035, leading to a scarcity of workers and a shift from mass unemployment to labor deficits. This demographic shift also threatens national dynamism, productivity, and creativity, mirroring challenges seen in Japan, and places immense pressure on the pay-as-you-go social security system as the number of retirees grows relative to contributors. While immigration, increased employment of seniors, and automation are potential adjustments, Sbaihi emphasizes that the core issue is a historical reversal from a favorable demographic trend to a headwind for the French economy.

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