Brazil votes on October 4, 2026, in the first round of a presidential election that polls indicate will likely proceed to a runoff on October 25. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads the first round with 37–41% support, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 30–37%, according to four late-August polls. The surprise candidate is self-help writer Augusto Cury, who surged from 1% to as high as 11% in August, holding third place and reshaping the electoral arithmetic. All runoff simulations between Lula and Flávio are tied within the margin of error, with Real Time Big Data showing a 44–44 deadlock and Vox Brasil placing Flávio fractionally ahead at 45.1% to 44.5%.