South African motorists should anticipate only moderate fuel price decreases in July, despite current Central Energy Fund data suggesting reductions of around R2.60 for petrol and R2.15-R2.60 for diesel. This potential relief will be partially offset by the reinstatement of fuel levies from July 1, adding R1.50 per litre for petrol and R1.96 per litre for diesel as temporary government relief is withdrawn. While initial over-recovery figures indicate larger cuts, economists caution that this data is preliminary and dependent on volatile Middle Eastern oil markets and the rand-dollar exchange rate. Geopolitical developments and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East remain key factors influencing oil prices, which have remained elevated near $95 per barrel.