The European Central Bank's latest economic bulletin warns that surging energy prices will push inflation further above target over the summer and keep it elevated into the first half of 2027. The ECB states that the increase in energy prices will lift inflation further during summer months as air conditioning drives up demand, and will also impact food, goods, and services inflation. Inflation should return to the 2% target only in the second half of 2027, provided energy prices fall and peace between Iran and the United States holds. However, the war in the Middle East remains a major source of uncertainty.