"Glass half full" on carbon cuts despite IRA losses 07.07.2026

A new study by Lily Bermel, a visiting fellow at Columbia's Center on Global Energy Policy, suggests that the U.S. transition to low-carbon energy remains resilient despite significant legislative rollbacks. Using Energy Innovation's simulator, the research projects that the U.S. will still achieve two-thirds of the emissions cuts from power generation that would have otherwise occurred without the 2025 GOP budget law and various EPA rule removals. While the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" and the end of electric vehicle subsidies have slowed progress, 71% of new clean generation is still expected between 2025 and 2035. However, fossil fuel generation is projected to be 19% higher due to slower coal plant shutdowns and increased gas usage. Bermel emphasizes that while the transition is slowed rather than stopped, permitting reform and transmission expansion remain critical to meeting climate goals.













