A National Bureau of Economic Research working paper, the first of its kind, found that increased ICE enforcement during President Trump's second term negatively impacted the employment of U.S.-born men with a high-school education or less in sectors like construction, contradicting the narrative that deportations create job opportunities for Americans. The study, by University of Colorado Boulder's Chloe East and Elizabeth Cox, revealed no wage increases for U.S.-born workers, indicating a reduction in overall economic demand rather than a simple labor substitution. The research attributes this to a "chilling effect" that is more severe than in past deportation waves, causing a broad decline in labor market participation. In areas with an ICE surge, employment among likely undocumented workers fell by 4%, which in turn reduced demand for complementary roles typically filled by U.S.-born workers, such as electricians.