Military expert Gustav Gressel, analyzing the Ukraine war for Tagesspiegel as it enters its fifth year in 2026, warns of a potential Russian encirclement of Ukraine's "fortress belt" in Donbas. Russia, despite occupying only 20% of Ukrainian territory since its February 24, 2022 invasion, aims for the collapse of Ukrainian defense. Gressel highlights Ukraine's critical challenges: severe shortages of Western weapons and ammunition (e.g., Taurus missiles), tactical errors like holding less strategic areas (Pokrovsk, Kursk), and significant personnel issues exacerbated by poor troop management under commanders like Valentyn Manko. Russia is preparing a pincer movement from Pokrovsk and Lyman to encircle Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostiantynivka. This could lead to a "kessel" (cauldron) with high casualties, potentially paving the way for a Russian victory, as a ceasefire remains unlikely.