Newly-created accounts on the prediction market Polymarket profited hundreds of thousands of dollars by placing highly specific bets on a US-Iran ceasefire hours before it was announced on Tuesday, April 7. Despite escalating rhetoric from President Donald Trump, including a threat of "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not open the Strait of Hormuz by his deadline, these new accounts made substantial "Yes" bets on a ceasefire. One account, created on the same day, turned a $72,000 investment into $200,000, while another won over $125,500. These well-timed, profitable bets have raised suspicions of insider trading, with Republican Congressman Blake Moore stating it's "highly unlikely that these are good-faith trades" and suggesting insiders with advanced information are likely involved. Polymarket has labeled the contract "disputed" due to ongoing restrictions and attacks, and the platform's use of proxy smart contract wallets prevents public identification of the account holders.