Military expert Gustav Gressel analyzes the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, projecting into 2026. Despite Russia's significant territorial gains being minimal relative to its losses, its objective remains the collapse of Ukrainian defense. Gressel highlights Ukraine's critical shortages of weapons and ammunition, exacerbated by a lack of consistent Western support and tactical errors, such as overcommitting resources to less vital areas and sending new recruits into the "fire brigade" units without adequate consideration for losses. He notes that the long-delayed delivery of German Taurus missiles is now unlikely to have a significant impact due to Russia's preparedness. A major concern for 2026 is the potential encirclement of Ukraine's "fortress belt" in the Donbas, a scenario that could create conditions for a Russian victory. Gressel deems a ceasefire unlikely and, if achieved, would likely be tactical rather than a lasting peace.