At least five Brazilian states—Amapá, Piauí, Maranhão, Santa Catarina, and Rio de Janeiro—are on track to have their gubernatorial elections decided in the first round on October 4, 2026, barring any unforeseen circumstances. In Amapá, Dr. Furlan (PSD) leads with 64.3% of the voting intentions, while in Piauí, the current governor Rafael Fonteles (PT) holds 63.5%. Maranhão and Santa Catarina present scenarios with advantages for Eduardo Braide (PSD) and Jorginho Mello (PL), respectively. Meanwhile, in Rio de Janeiro, Eduardo Paes (PSD) is flirting with a second-round runoff, with 48.3% of the intentions. In contrast, São Paulo and Paraná tend toward a second-round decision, with Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) leading in São Paulo and Sergio Moro (PL) in Paraná.