Military expert Gustav Gressel warns that the Ukraine war, entering its fifth year, faces a critical juncture in 2026. Despite Russia's initial territorial gains being minimal and costly, their objective remains the collapse of Ukrainian defense. Gressel highlights the risk of Ukrainian forces being encircled in the eastern "fortress belt" of cities like Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, a situation exacerbated by Ukraine's shortages of weapons and ammunition, and tactical errors such as committing too many resources to less critical areas. He also points to internal issues within the Ukrainian army, including poor resource management, a lack of experienced leadership, and difficulties with recruitment and troop morale. While a Russian uprising is deemed unlikely, Gressel suggests that a successful encirclement could create the conditions for a Russian victory, emphasizing that a ceasefire would likely be tactical rather than a path to lasting peace.