Political scientist Ursula Münch predicts that while the AfD may not win mayoral seats in Bavaria's upcoming local elections on March 8th, their candidates could reach run-off elections. Despite the AfD polling at 20% in Bavaria, Münch emphasizes that the remaining 80% of voters are unlikely to support an extremist party. She notes that while candidate personality is crucial in local elections, a segment of dissatisfied voters may support the AfD without scrutinizing the individual. Münch believes this rejection of established parties will not be enough for the AfD to win a run-off election, even though they are fielding candidates for mayor in Munich and Nuremberg, as well as for district administrator positions across the state.