Recent polls indicate a significant surge for the AfD in the upcoming Baden-Württemberg state election on March 8th, potentially more than doubling their 2021 result. The party, which previously secured a single-digit percentage and entered the state parliament with only 17 representatives, is now polling around 20 percent, a notable increase from 15 percent in December 2024. While a victory for the AfD is considered unlikely, with CDU and the Greens expected to lead, the party's candidate, Bundestag member Markus Frohnmaier, would only relocate to Baden-Württemberg if he were to become Minister-President, a scenario deemed highly improbable due to other parties' unwillingness to form a coalition. Two recent representative surveys, one by INSA and another by Infratest dimap, both place the AfD at approximately 20 percent, suggesting this could be their strongest performance in the state to date.